Are Three Points for a Win Really Better Than Two? A Comparison of German Soccer League and Cup Games

Dilger Alexander, Geyer Hannah

Abstract

The effects of the three-point rule in the first league German soccer are tested empirically and compared to games from the German cup competition. The inclusion of cup games ensures that changes in league games can be attributed to the three-point rule. As a result of their relative devaluation, the number of draws should decrease. Furthermore, an increase in the number of close wins is expected. The strategy of a leading team becomes more defensive, resulting in fewer goal shootings by that team, as well as fewer shooting opportunities for the opponent. Empirical evidence supporting these effects is found.